Although the democratic opposition is in disarray, the Fidesz government is already preparing the ground for a possible return of Gordon Bajnai as leader of the opposition that hopes to regain power after the 2014 elections.
A sure sign that Viktor Orbán is somewhat worried about Bajnai’s candidacy is that Kehi (Kormányzati Ellenőrzési Hivatal/Government Control Office) just made the decision to initiate a formal investigation in connection with the sale of Dataplex Kft back in 2005. The accused are not mentioned by name, but the suspicion is that the real targets are Gordon Bajnai and János Kóka (SZDSZ), minister of economics and transportation between 2004 and 2008. Indeed, today’s Heti Válasz claims that the paper has absolute proof of the guilt of these two men. Anyone who’s interested in the complicated story of Dataplex Kft. can find plenty of material in Magyar Nemzet and Heti Válasz in 2009 and 2010. In brief, the charge is that in three months Kóka and Bajnai made 3 billion forints on the sale of Dataplex Kft., originally a state-owned firm. They bought it on the cheap and sold it for a handsome profit to Magyar Telekom.
Heti Válasz, which began investigating the case in 2007, is overjoyed. At last, after all the cases that Budai investigated came to naught, here is one that is rock solid. Or at least this is what the pro-Fidesz organ claims. Well, we will see. After all, it is also in today’s news that Gyula Budai, who was sued by Ferenc Gyurcsány and Gordon Bajnai because he had accused them of perjury, was found guilty today. He is obliged to pay 300,000 forints to each man and must publicly apologize for falsely accusing them of a very serious crime.
So, why this sudden interest in Bajnai’s candidacy and how serious is it? First, yesterday Ferenc Gyurcsány wrote a short note on Facebook in which he summarized the current political situation as he sees it. According to him, many people think that the chaos among the different groups that oppose the current government makes the situation hopeless. But he is more upbeat. From the study by the Homeland and Progress Foundation, established by Gordon Bajnai, everyone knows that without cooperation there is no way of removing Viktor Orbán from power. LMP refuses to cooperate with any other political party. MSZP doesn’t exclude the possibility of cooperation, but Mesterházy and his circle believe in the possibility of winning the elections on their own. After praising Mesterházy as the chairman of the party, Gyurcsány pretty well declares that Mesterházy is not a good candidate for the job of prime minister. He likens the situation to the 1998-2002 period when, although László Kovács managed to build up MSZP, he was wise enough to allow Péter Medgyessy to be the official candidate for prime minister. “He stepped back and his party won.”
From here it’s but a short step to naming Bajnai as an acceptable candidate of the joint effort to dislodge Viktor Orbán. “The key is in Gordon Bajnai’s hand.” DK is not putting up anyone for the post, so it is up to LMP and MSZP to shape what happens. If they refuse to cooperate with all other forces Viktor Orbán will remain and “the voters will punish them. Rightly….”
An article that appeared yesterday in HVG deals with the same topic. Gábor Gavra and Ferenc M. László claim that “Bajnai already decided but MSZP is unwilling.” The authors seem to know that negotiations are going on between the staff of Bajnai and the MSZP leadership, but it seems that Mesterházy and his friends within the party believe that they don’t need anyone from the outside to win the elections. Within the party only Péter Kiss and Ildikó Lendvai are pushing for cooperation, not only with other parties but also with civic groups like Milla, 4K, and Szolidaritás.
According to the information these two reporters received, Mesterházy is against any kind of coalition/cooperation with the other parties. Working out a common platform with LMP is almost impossible because MSZP would have to make too many compromises. As for DK, he is certain that the current supporters of Gyurcsány’s party will eventually return to the fold.
There seems to be another consideration within the leadership of MSZP. According to the current MSZP strategy that surfaced a few days ago, MSZP wants to return to the traditional left-wing policies that made the socialists popular in the past. The proponents of this return to old-fashioned socialism accuse Gyurcsány and others of infecting MSZP with the virus of liberalism. Liberalism might appeal to intellectuals, but MSZP doesn’t even want to be popular with that segment of MSZP supporters. The eggheads should follow the party’s leadership, not the other way around.
Mesterházy apparently also believes that if Gordon Bajnai headed the ticket it would serve Fidesz well. Fidesz would come up with Bajnai’s austerity package and a “bad deal with the IMF.”
So, apparently this is where we stand. I don’t know why Ferenc Gyurcsány is optimistic.
Hungarian Spectrum 
One thing is for sure, the only person who has showed ability to govern without any allures. I wouldn’t care too much about the scandals of the Gyurcsány government if his governance had been fruitful and good at least. Along the same lines I don’t really know anything about the Dataplex case (but the timing makes it very plausible at least that Fidesz has realized the threat), Bajnai might be dirty or not, but at this point all I care about is that I don’t see any other viable candidates who has a chance of avoiding total political chaos in the after Orbán world and who has at least some non-zero credibility in the public eye.
MSZP is not learning at all. The “program” Kingfisher linked here multiple time is unbelievably opportunistic, cynical, dumb, shortsighted and thus scary in the current situation. If this is the best we have as an alternative, we might as well stay in the Viktorian era… Haven’t we had enough populism already?
I think Gyurcsány is right about Mesterházy and I don’t see any reason for his optimism either. My speculative feeling is that MSZP might not even want to win in 2014. I think they want to get rid of other democratic opposition alternatives so that they can take it all in 2018 and this coming election is a perfect opportunity (or so they hope) to get rid of DK and LMP. This is an implementation of Orbán’s one camp-one flag tactics on the left. I bet anyone that if they manage to take the 2/3 away from OV, they’ll communicate it as the success of the century regardless of OV staying in power.
Sorry, the first sentence was meant to end with “was Bajnai”
Bajnai is not only logical but a surprising ‘find’ under the circumstances. I also agree that MSZP–as criminal as you can be outside of Fidesz–wants nothing to do with him because he might establish a standard of clean government that’ll be, a) hard to match and, b) in which
there will be little chance for thievery. Actually,
a Bajnai government’s success might establish a new party and a hierarchy of successors that would well-nigh obliterate the MSZP….and good riddance to them, too.
A post-Orbán ‘trechnocrat’ Bajnai government is the first idea I’ve seen since April 2010 that I think could actually be the answer (or at least an answer).
But is it at all likely to happen?
Leaving aside the question of getting rid of Orbán for a moment, would Bajnai take the job? Would people accept him? Are there enough uncontaminated, talented people around for him to be able to form a workable government?
“MSZP wants to return to the traditional left-wing policies that made the socialists popular in the past.”
When exactly was this?!
Paul: Bajnai is only going to take the job if he feels he’ll be able to do something. Unlike Gyurcsány and Orbán he seems to hate spotlight, he prefers work over theater and seems pretty disinterested in power just for the hell of it. I don’t see behind the curtains so I don’t know what are the chances of this happening, but I have to agree with Eva, I’m rather pessimistic.
Without him, I can only paraphrase you, the only thing I’m worried about more than Orbán continuing is what comes after his demise.
Paul again: Kingfisher posted their leaked political tactics plan for the next two years:
Have absolutely no faith in MSZP. If DK gets up to 10% watch out. Presently, they’re the only ones who gained at the last poll taken. Gyurcsany knows enough to put Bajnai in charge.
I’m planning to summarize the contents of that leaked document tomorrow. Otherwise, in the past I wrote a couple damning pieces about MSZP’s left-wing. Especially Katalin Szili. I think I mentioned an article about her by József Debreczeni who likes her about as much as I do. He called her Tess of the Durbervilles. So, search for Tess and you will get the idea.
I wanted to say that Mesterházy is wrong if he thinks that DK voters will flock to MSZP. First of all, most of KD party members are not former MSZP members. They are new people. I also suspect that a lot of SZDSZ sympathizer will be DK voters. And they wouldn’t vote for MSZP.
I have to weigh in on another topic here…the judge who commented praising the act of throwing paint in Horthy’s statue.
Yes, it’s odd that while fining the deed he also praised it, but one has to respect the judges courage. These are horrible times and he just wanted to say that Horthy statues ought not to be. Good for him. And shame on the superior court judges who upbraided him for it. The judge knew well that what he did was ‘extra-legal’
but he stood up for what he thought needed to be said. Would
that more Hungarians had his courage!
There is a great Hungarian movie with Karoly Eperjes, the Eldorado. The director was Geza Beremenyi so you know it’s good stuff. It’s depressing but great fun to watch.
The movie is about the life between the end of WWII and 1956. About a guy, a great survivor and excellent businessman. There is a part (watch the YouTube video below) where the Communist Party rep visits him in his booth in the flea market and talks him into buying apples from the Party. He’s reluctant first but agrees. A few days later the same communist guy shows up with two thugs.
“Hey, we have a problem …”
“What problem?”
“You are selling the apples for 3 Ft per kilo.”
“So? It’s my business.”
“… but you bought it from us for 50 fillers a kilo. You are stealing from us …”
“What? We have contracts …”
“Shut up! Buy it back for 2.90, then you can sell it!”
This Datalex fuckery from the Orbanites reminds me on this scene from the movie.
The Wallis holding, where Bajnai was the CEO, bought Dataplex Ltd. for 10 million dollars when it was bleeding money big time. Then they took over the management and the company started to get orders. So of course the company’s value went up and then they sold it for 25 million dollars. So the infamous “breach of fiduciary responsibilities” charge is, mainly on Koka, that while he was minister he facilitated the government orders to Dataplex so the increased value has nothing to do with Wallis’ expertise to revive dying companies. You know, if they do it with Simicska somebody else must have done it too. Like the minister of interior in the present Orban government, Pinter, who sold his security company before he took office then the company was flooded with orders from the state …
Here is the part from the movie if you speak Hungarian. If you don’t, it’s still here, hehe.
@petofi, I’m sorry, I strongly disagree. At a time when institutions are crumbling in Hungary, the last thing it needs is politicising judges. The whole point of the judiciary is that they don’t make the law, they uphold and administer it.
@Mutt: “You know, if they do it with Simicska somebody else must have done it too.” Yes, this is the essence of the Fidesz propaganda machine… whatever they (Fidesz) do, they accuse the political opponents with it. Whether it’s true or not, doesn’t really matter, as long as it is damaging the opponent and serves as a distraction from what they (Fidesz) are doing. As illustrated by a cartoon Eva linked to one her posts a while ago:
Oh , the cartoon reads: “Look grandma, there they are taking the thief!”
@ Matt. Eldorado…when Eperjes was still a great, respected actor.
Right in principle, but wrong in practice…that is, in the Hungary of today.
When the laws enacted are mindless and havoc-creating, a judge–first and last, the guard
of propriety–is right to declare the true state of affairs. If not he, than who?
Petőfi: ” If not he, than who?”
This is a more complicated issue, I think. First of all, I find the overall Hungarian attitude to politics, that is, to keep it as far away from every non-politics related professional life and schools, etc. pretty harmful here. Judges should be able to voice their concerns about the laws they have to apply independently from applying it in there rulings faithfully. In this sense the judge conducted the trial faithful to his profession’s requirements.
I agree with Kingfisher though that particular rulings in particular cases are not the most fortunate time for that. The reason is that it’s highly subjective. Think about a reverse situation if somebody had painted some Károlyi statue red during the previous government and then the judge had given the same. I don’t think anybody in this blog would praise the judge for his bravery for speaking up (and rightly so) while there’s no objective difference between the two. Do you see where I’m going with this?
I don’t agree.
When a government have shredded institutions and past laws; and refuse to enforce their decisions effectively (note the numerous Klubradio decisions…In a western country, no government would ever have challenged their judges in this way), it calls for unusual actions on the part of the judiciary. The judges
action highlights the seriousness of the government’s actions–pensions; judges; etc.–or lack of them (garda, jobbik in parliament etc.)
Judges are the glue that connect the past with the present and the future. When a government has gone as far wrong as this one, judges should use their special perspective to alert the citizenry.
Jano:
This is a more complicated issue, I think. First of all, I find the overall Hungarian attitude to politics, that is, to keep it as far away from every non-politics related professional life and schools, etc. pretty harmful here. Judges should be able to voice their concerns about the laws they have to apply independently from applying it in there rulings faithfully. In this sense the judge conducted the trial faithful to his profession’s requirements.
Unfortunately, even follow the rules and you will be penalized. For example the case of one of my hang outs Caledonia. Closed for two months, because they cook with whiskey and had two bottle open at the same time on the bar. I am pissed off.
http://www.pestiside.hu/20120926/caledonia-closure-may-stink-but-lingering-stench-of-cheese-shop-shut-down-even-worse/
http://index.hu/belfold/2012/09/27/caledonia/
I disagree.. one role of an independent judiciary is to counter bad legislation.. and in doing so they are “making the law”.
Gordon versus Mesterházy
Dumb versus Dumber
To call Bajnai dumb is just plain ill will of which there is a surfeit in Hungary. In fact, if you could bottle ‘ill will’, the country would be running a monster surplus.
Ivan, your statement is asinine. Bajnai has been recognized by
numerous awards by universities across Europe. Real universities, not like that arm of Fidesz called Debrecen U.
And that sums up the whole Fidesz fan club’s attitude and disposition. Show them a qualified contender, and they sum up all what hey have to say in an eloquent, factual way like Rettego Ivan did. THis is why it is hard to show the Fidesz lovers that “something is rotten” in Hungary, as they simply cover their ears, close their eyes, and refuse to speak (least intelligently). What do you expect when they put a fraud up as a President of the country, a failed soccer star with high nostalgia for his lost opportunity as Prime Minister, a sex magazine publisher to mind the morals of the media as the Head of the Media Authority? What do you expect from these people when Fidesz nationalizes their pension, puts a flat tax across that punishes the poor, offend International players, releases ax-murderers from prison that puts other’s countries peace at risk, tenders out Hungarian lands for friends versus farmers, awards out government tenders without contracts? What do you expect when a worthy opponent shows up? They call him “dumb” Sums it all up.
I don’t care which university did what to Mr. Bajnai. I see that people usually needs certainity/ standards. In the past there was God: God approved sg good, therefor it was good. Nowadays it’s the ISO-system, or the universities or the US. Buy now, we have quality, ISO proves it. It is democracy, the US. proves it etc. It is not very enlightened referring always to some “authority”. I rely on my own experience: he is dumb.
I tried to find Mr. Bajnai’s scientific works – google has not found anything. I am bored when I see these efforts to build up a “counter-Orbán”. Mr Orbán is acknowledged by foreign Universities as well. So what?
Poor, hapless, saps these Fideszers; all just cannon fodder.
When Orban will leave them in the lurch with a broken, bankrupt country they’ll surely be blaming the jews and not that miserable creature.
I now know why they have those long mustachios…so they’ll have
something to chew in the hard times to come-
qualified contender? 🙂
Politics are the same everywhere – there are narcistic, self-centered people acting stupid, trying to make their own living, trying to sell themselves as morally acceptable.
Reading this blog, I always wondered how could Mr. Orbán and his staff won the election by 2/3 if they are evil, incompetent etc. How could they win seats even in 2012 in Hodmezővásárhely? Two possible solutions:
1. You’re picture is exagerated – maybe there is some talent in them
2. Hungarians are totaly dumbs etc, but YOU know the ultimate TRUTH, YOU ARE the ultimate source of democracy, prosperity etc. and to prove Your point You have to find fascist etc here – really annoying. We are not nationalist more than others. We are not FIDESZ funs, we are totally aware of who they are and what they are doing – and many of us accept it, since the others are even more dumber.
It’s up to You whether you make some self-criticism or not.
Folks just realized here, that the Socialist and Liberals were complete idiots – they kicked them out of office. Socialists instead of self criticism and reorganizing themselves continued blaming the Fidesz for selling itself with nationalism. It is not enough – all of the socialist MPs should resign, and give the chance to younger socialists to replace them. More than half of the Socialist faction is composed of old soc. officials. Down with them – they are unreliable. This also would bring international attention to Hungary, and would give opportunity for renewal of the socialist. But they don’t have the gout.
Scandals in politics? fraud as a president etc? How about the Hungarian Cicero, who happened to be some secret agent (D-209) and that truth-teller dancer, who started a hunger strike in solidarity with poorer people, while wearing a suit which cost more than half of an average Hungarian monthly salary? Pathetic fools. Mr. B. is one of them.
Ahh, Retego, did you just step out of the 13th century? I’ve read a book like you, called “Simplicimus”, try and find it.
In the 21st century, and for a few hundred years now, we have books which, if well chosen and well read, afford you the experience of others without the pain and hardship. I recommend you visit a place called a library. If you want to know about Democracy, perhaps you ought to read de Tocqueville; government? Hay, Hamilton, Jefferson; humanity? try the plays of Shakespeare.
Once you learn about the world, Rettego, you might be able to see more than what you presently can from your grass hut.
@ Rettego Ivan
“..how Orban could win 2/3…”
Well, I for one, voted for him/them because MSZP were totally discredited. But I must say, I was forewarned by a knowledgeable Hungarian about the dangers of Orban.
But I never suspected THIS. I didn’t think that you could deconstruct a democratic country so thoroughly and so quickly.
You’re right about MSZP, though..while being totally wrong about Bajnai–which is what I found interesting. I mean, hasn’t Bajnai
proved himself in that year he was responsible for the country?
I read nothing but approving commentary on Bajna from The Economist and other respected organs around Europe.
Why doesn’t that count for you, Rettego?
Well, you see, exactly what I am talking about. Getting mad a little? You have a problem with Gyurcsany going on Hunger strike, but you have no problem with Orban syphoning Hungary’s money to his friends? At least Gyurcsany did not use my money! (Yes, I pay taxes in Hungary too.)
Can you quote where I said Hungarians dumb? Actually you said Bajnai is dumb, so do not put your words into my mouth!
I do not have the ultimate truth, and this is what we debate here on and on again, versus those who still route for Fidesz without any debate.
THe 2/3 you are talking about…… Did you read the latest data? Open you eye dummy. With the control of the media it is hard to get the truth out, but you have the advantage to read English. There are factual current events, that shows how corrupt financially and poliitcally Fidesz is, and you choose to ignore it. So, who is the dumb dear Ivan? THe whole world is dumb, as they buy into the liberal propaganda? The USA even bought into this from Bush to Obama. The Venice Commission is made up by dumbs, and on and on. The whole wide world without any proof believes that Matolcsy’s economy sucks, that the Medai authority does not follow the legal system, that Orban released an axe murderer, that sex magazin publisher runs the Media Authority, that Schmitt is still lying about his education. Yes that is all part of the liberal conspiracy, and non of it true!
Talking about Schmitt… Semmelweis University had to issue a statement regarding Pal Schmiit (Fidesz’ favorite ex President), who claims that he started his studies toward his Ph.D. (that he originally claimed he had).
“A Semmelweis Egyetem erre reagálva írta azt: “Schmitt Pál nyilvántartásunk szerint nem áll hallgatói jogviszonyban a Semmelweis Egyetemmel, nem jelentkezett a doktori iskola PhD-képzésére, sem képzés nélküli fokozatszerzésre”.”
In response to this, Semmelweis University, issued a statement: “Our records show that Pal Schmitt has no student status with Semmelweis University. He did not registered for PhD graduate school training or for training in the acquisition stage.”
This is the quality of the man who Fidesz did not distance itself, and still stand by him.
I was totally aware of what would come.
Mr Bajnai did an extraordinary job to evade the catastrophe which was the result of his own acts. He did it unsuccessfully even though he was backed by the IMF and the US. If he is so talented, why didn’t he say/do something against while he was a minister for some years before he became PM? He makes me feel, that he was just a puppet of the friendly international organizations.
I read many good oppinions of respected organs on Mr. Orbán:
http://mosmaiorum.blog.hu/2012/07/30/the_glamour_of_true_thoughts
http://fn.hir24.hu/vilag/2012/03/22/megvedte-orbant-merkel-allamminisztere/
http://mandiner.hu/cikk/20120926_john_o_sullivan_ne_aldozzuk_fel_a_demokraciakat_egy_oligarchikus_eu_kormanyert
If You need someone reliable, try this guy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andr%C3%A1s_Balogh
You are right! It required two years of the genius of Matolcsy and the Fidesz policies to break the camel’s back and put our country back on track. It was just that easy.
@Rettegő Iván: Dear Iván, what are you so scared of?
Did I write this? “Your opinion is the only source of the truth..”
No, I didn’t. But how right-wingish of you to put up a statement (untrue) and then attack it. Make you feel
good? I suppose so. What I said was for you to do some reading among the great books of civilization. Don’t worry: it won’t harm you, just your bloated, faulty opinions.
–So, according to you, the US is ‘responsible’ for the security of this region. Really? That’s news.
And, I suppose, because of that ridiculous assumption of yours, you jump to a more ridiculous conclusion: that the US does not want ‘patriotism’. Hmmm, I’m having difficulty following the logic.
–“Normal functioning of a democracy..” –So you would say that the last two years in Hungary is what a normal democratic government is like, right? YOU ARE IGNORANT.
But keep believing in the Viktator. He’s having a good laugh at all of you, in between counting his millions (euros not forints). Did you, perchance, notice what he said in Lithuania (I think it was) where he said, “God willing, I will be in charge for another two years…” (or something to that effect)?
Orban himself can’t believe the gullibility of his mustachioed followers. (He has no women followers,except Gabriella, the porno queen).
“How long can I get away with this?” Orban must wonder.
With followers like you, Rettego, quite a while….
London Calling!
I just can’t believe that Budapest bureaucracy has closed the Caledonia for 60 days. With such a small fine too. For such trivial reasons.
If it had been for poor hygiene then it would have been understandable – but using it for cooking; and working with open bottles is just ludicrous.
And the cheese shop too?
Are these idiots serious?
Trading in such a hard economic environment is bad enough without these buffoons.
As suggested there must be a hidden agenda.
The business environment is already tough – that a government can hobble the business community like this – and risk the enterprise collapsing – is true ‘Planet Hungary’.
Is it any wonder that International companies are deserting the sinking ship that is SS Hungary?
What a travesty. Sheer bloodymindedness.
Close the Caledonia? Ahm spewin’ feathers!
Regards
Charlie
@Ivanhoe These sweeping statements about good guys bad guys or smart guys and dumb guys are really pointless. I don’t remember you commenting on specific subjects on this blog. You cannot expect us the readers to take you seriously.
Ok. Why makes you think that András Balogh is a good candidate?
When are people going to start considering the fact that Orban is out to ruin the country?
Why?
Who knows? (I do have my own guesses, though…)
That was Rettego’s effort at “irony”….
ALERT! ALERT!!
A UFO is reported to be arriving at the center of earth otherwise known as Hungary.
They will be searching for a specie Hungaricum Magesterium for their inter-gallectic museum.
Mr. Rettego, step forward please….
Petofi: Did you, perchance, notice what he said in Lithuania (I think it was) where he said, “God willing, I will be in charge for another two years…” (or something to that effect)?
One seventh of the population of Lithuania left the country for greener pastures since 2001. Mostly young and well educated ones. Current number is just less than 3 mio, was 3.5 mio.
Neither Mesterhazy nor Bajnai have the charisma needed to beat Fidesz, in my opinion. Gyurcsany has charisma, but he was recast by Fidesz as the Devil himself.
I would like to see the ex-trade union leader Konya to lead the opposition. People would like to vote for clean hands. Konya had no government job in the past and seems to be charismatic.
to Mr Grozniy:
If you browse through history, you find that Evil is always talented (without talents s/he would not become really evil), so I will not deny this adjective of Mr Orban.
I don’t get it.
What is this UFO thingy?
Mr Balogh was the Socialist candidate for presidency, now he is the vice president of the Socialist Party. Why would it be irony? Renowned scholar, totally opposed to the neoliberalism of Gyurcsány, opposed to the “nation-politics” of the SZDSZ, real socialdemocrat, even the FIDESZ admitted his talents. No scandal, no hysteria, no Michael Jackson. Reliable, socially sensible
US is responsible for the security of this region. It is not its duty, no one wants them to do so. It is its interest! It is the only superpower, challenged by the Russians and Chineese – it can not afford to let things go. Isolationism is over! What do You think the NATO is doing here? Yugoslavia? Remember? They see this region a barell filled with gunpowder. Of course they want to minimize the possibility of any tension.
I am to tired to google sources for You on this issue, You can find it if You really want want.
Keywords: USA érdeke, geopolitika, Kelet-Európa, stabilitás,
I can propose books too: Kissinger’s diplomacy / Brzezinski: Grand chessboard / Huntington: Clashes of civilization / Wallerstein: World system – An introduction
As far as Balogh is concerned he is a total idiot the socialists dredged up after they lost the elections. He is a joke.