On September 3, I wrote about an opinion piece by Tamás Bauer, vice-chairman of the Demokratikus Koalíció. Its title was “Electoral mathematics: The Demokratikus Koalíció’s position.” Bauer argued for DK’s right, based on its numerical support, to receive at least 8 or 9 electoral districts. He added that DK’s positions on many issues differ from those of both MSZP and Együtt2014-PM and therefore it deserves a parliamentary caucus.
At the end of that post I indicated that I would like to return to DK’s political program because relatively few people are familiar with it. I had to postpone that piece due to DK’s very prompt answer to MSZP. On the next day, September 4, I posted an article entitled “The current state of the Hungarian opposition: Negotiations between MSZP and DK.”
Over the last few days it has become obvious to me that Ferenc Gyurcsány has already begun his election campaign. Zsolt Gréczy’s appointment as DK spokesman signaled the beginning of the campaign, which was then followed by several personal appearances by Ferenc Gyurcsány where he began to outline his program. Surely, the amusing video on being a tour guide in Felcsút, “the capital of Orbanistan,” was part of this campaign. So, it’s time to talk about the party program of the Demokratikus Koalíció, especially since only yesterday Attila Mesterházy answered Ferenc Gyurcsány’s letter to him. I elaborated on that letter in my September 4 post.
You may remember that one of the sticking points between the two parties was whether DK is ready to have “an electoral alliance” as opposed to “a political alliance.” Gyurcsány in his letter to Mesterházy made light of the difference between the two, but as far as the socialists are concerned this is an important distinction. Yesterday Attila Mesterházy made that crystal clear in his answer to Gyurcsány which he posted on his own webpage. According to him, a “political alliance” means the complete subordination of individual parties’ political creeds to the agreed upon policies. In plain language, DK “will have to agree not to represent its own political ideas during the campaign.”
Since DK’s program thus became one of the central issues in the negotiations it is time to see in what way DK’s vision of the future differs from that of MSZP and Együtt 2014-PM. Here I’m relying on Tamás Bauer’s list of the main differences.
(1) An MSZP and Együtt 2014-PM alliance following an electoral victory will only amend the new constitution and the cardinal laws that are based on this new constitution. The Demokratikus Koalíció, on the other hand, holds that the new constitution is illegitimate because it was enacted without the participation of the opposition. Therefore, according to DK, the new constitution must be repealed and the constitution of the Republic must take its place.
(2) MSZP-E14 by and large accepts the policy of Viktor Orbán on national matters and would allow people living outside of the borders to vote in national elections. The Demokratikus Koalíció rejects this new law and would put an end to these new citizens’ voting rights.
(3) MSZP-E14 does not seem to concern itself with the relation of church and state or the Orbán government’s law on churches. DK would restore the religious neutrality of the state and would initiate a re-examination of the agreement that was concluded between Hungary and the Vatican or, if the Church does not agree to such a re-examination, DK would abrogate the agreement altogether.
(4) MSZP-E14 talks in generalities about the re-establishment of predictable economic conditions and policies that would be investment friendly but it doesn’t dare to reject such populist moves as a decrease in utility prices or the nationalization of companies. Only DK is ready to openly reject all these.
(5) MSZP-E14 accepts the tax credits that depend on the number of children and therefore supports an unjust system. DK, on the other hand, wants to put an end to this system and to introduce a system that treats all children alike.
(6) Együtt2014-PM opposes the concentration of land that is necessary for the creation of a modern and effective agriculture. The policy of small landholdings was the brainchild of the Smallholders Party, which was largely responsible for the collapse of Hungarian agriculture after the change of regime. MSZP is against foreign investment in Hungarian agriculture. The Demokratikus Koalíció intends to liberalize the agricultural market. DK thinks that agricultural cooperatives should be able to purchase the land they currently cultivate. It also maintains that foreign capital should be able to come into Hungary in order to make Hungarian agriculture competitive again.
(7) The attitude of MSZP and Együtt 2014-PM toward the conflicts between the European Union and the Orbán government is ambiguous, while the Demokratikus Koalíció unequivocally takes the side of the institutions of the Union against the Orbán government.
These are the points that Tamás Bauer mentions. But as the Gyurcsány campaign unfolds more and more differences will be visible. For example, only yesterday Gyurcsány talked about his ideas to abolish the compulsory retirement age and to financially encourage people to demand higher wages in order to maximize their pensions after retirement. During this talk in Nyíregyháza Gyurcsány made no secret of the fact that his party is working on its election program.
So, it seems to me that the Gyurcsány campaign has already begun. Maybe I’m wrong and Gyurcsány will give up all his ideas and will line up behind MSZP-E14, but somehow I doubt it. Even if he tried, he couldn’t. Temperamentally he is not suited for it.
Meanwhile, an interesting but naturally not representative voting has been taking place in Magyar Narancs. Readers of the publication are asked to vote for party and for leader of the list. DK leads (52%) over Együtt 2014 (29%) and Gyurcsány (54%) over Bajnai (32%). Of course, this vote in no way reflects reality. What it does tell us is that the majority of readers of Magyar Narancs are DK supporters. Something that surprised me. If I had had to guess, I would have picked Együtt2014.
As for Ferenc Gyurcsány’s visit to Felcsút, I wrote about it a couple of days ago. The video is now out. This morning I decided to take a look at it because from Zsolt Gréczy’s description on ATV’s Egyenes beszéd the whole scene of Fidesz cameras following them everywhere sounded hilarious . At that time the video had been viewed by about 5,000 people. Right now the number of visitors is over 53,000.
Clips from The Godfather are juxtaposed with scenes from Felcsút. The video ends with the wedding of Vito Corleone’s daughter. While Gyurcsány is narrating the enrichment of the Orbán family, two people, one of whom is the Fidesz regional secretary and the other perhaps the cameraman of the Puskás Academy, follow him everywhere and record his every move and word. Definitely worth seven minutes of your time.
Since I am no fortune teller I have no idea what will happen. A couple of things, though, I’m pretty sure of. DK will never agree to drop Gyurcsány as their party leader. And Mesterházy indicated that this might be one of the MSZP demands for an agreement. Or at least that Gyurcsány not be DK’s top candidate, or possibly any candidate. Otherwise why would he have asked: “Are those media predictions that the Demokratikus Koalíció plans to nominate the chairman of the party, Ferenc Gyurcsány, for the second slot on the list true?”
At first reading I didn’t notice this linguistic oddity. The letter is addressed to “Dear Mr. Party Chairman, dear Feri” and continues in the second-person singular: “te.” Now that I returned to the sentence in order to translate it, suddenly I noticed that Mesterházy switched from “te,” which in a personal letter would have been normal, to “Ferenc Gyurcsány” in a letter addressed to Ferenc Gyurcsány.
What will the final result be? I have no idea. Let’s put it this way, it’s much easier to predict the outcome of Hungarian soccer matches than the outcome of opposition politics.
Hungarian Spectrum 
Perhaps we should forget the election and look to the future?
The left is not going to oust Fidesz/Jobbik next April. The system is against them, the figures don’t add up, and the left itself is unelectable as a government. So, why worry about the technicalities of how this defeat will be arranged?
Perhaps the best answer (the only answer) is to use the election as a springboard for the future opposition to (and eventual ousting of) Orbán? In which case, Gy is the best spokesman the left has – so let him speak. Let him proclaim his more radical (and far more sensible) programme – some of it might get through the Fidesz media control and actually strike a chord with disaffected voters (the lukewarm, diluted, nonsense coming from MSzP certainly won’t).
OK, so he’ll run into the ‘anti-Gyurcsány factor’, but so what? People actually hearing what he has to say might change their minds. And anyway the aim is not to win this election, but to start preparing the ground for the eventual defeat of Orbán. And the only way to do that is to remove the tacit support of the people.
Orbán cannot be removed by traditional democratic means, the only way to get rid of him is with a sustained campaign that eventually convinces the majority of people that Hungary needs to be rid of him. And, in parallel with that, we need a convincing programme of actions and policies to put in place after Orbán has gone. And, right now, the DK manifesto appears to be a very good starting point for that.
I don’t think it’s impossible to win. You just need a narrow win of the individual candidates and you can even have 2/3 of the house. It seems the DK is doing everything agains that …
We keep talking about the unity of the parties but what is more important is the unity of the voters. It’s time to throw in the concept of endorsing parties. Yes, my dear Hungarian brothers and sisters, you can help a cause without getting a piece of the pie. Shocking. I know ….
So if you are a DK supporter and Gyurcsany tells you to vote for the individual DK candidate, because the boys, Bajnai and Mesterhazy showed him the door, then please don’t, unless you want Orban back for 4 more years.
This result of the poll by the Magyar Narancs, that shows support for Gyurcsany, is interesting. I think the same phenomenon is going on here on this blog. Liberals know that the DK is the closest to a modern European party (not necessary liberal) . But their ideas don’t sell too well in Hungary at the moment. We should take it slow. If you are adamant about the voting rights and seriously curtailing the power of churches, you will shoot yourself in the foot. Don’t try to argue with me. I AGREE with the DK. I just want to change the government. You have to ride the turul so to speak.
One thing is Gyurcsany, but if the DK keeps pushing this “radical” (as in intelligence is radical for morons) agenda we will watch all the Orban girls wed a rich gentry (the youngest is 9).
DK is Gyurcsány’s party in the same way Fidesz is Orbán’s. Both parties are a personal property of their leaders, they are vehicles existing solely for the support of one singular person. Thus these parties behave differently from traditional Western European parties which cover multiple interests and unite various strong often antagonistic personalities. These days only MSZP is like a Western European party in that sense, the rest of the market are personal vehicles. This has been a common misunderstanding of foreign analysts, they think all parties are like CDU or the Labour or even MSZMP. No — DK and Fidesz are both personal enterprises, however big Fidesz is now.
Thus MSZP is in a more difficult position since decision making is slower and beholden to more particular interests, while DK and Fidesz can be much quicker and tougher and consistent. Of course, this is not to judge the quality of the decisions, but it is important to realize the situation. (Although I have a feeling that MSZP will transform itself into Mesterházy’s personal vehicle as the older guard retires.)
It is a bit strange to demand from DK that Gyurcsány would not be a leading representative of it. DK is Gyurcsány. DK would not exits or survive without him. Similarly with Fidesz, no consigliere, however tough and politically savvy he is, like Lázár, Rogán, Kósa would be able to keep together Fidesz, these people would simply not command the same loyalty and would have rely on other types of power relations that on what Orbán does.
Thus it depends on Gyurcsány, if he is generous enough he can step back formally for a while, but DK will not and cannot operate without him. He will continue to be the sole ‘decider’ at DK and given his experience and commitment I imagine he would be very influential in any coalition government, whatever his formal position. But I guess MSZP’s old guard know this, Baja and the like are smart and not unreasonable.
The negotiations with MSZP represent to me more of a power struggle with Mesterházy. He is afraid that Gyurcsány would eat him sooner or later, outmanuever him. Mesterházy clearly wants to be the top dog and wants everybody on the left to accept that. He knows that Gyurcsány will not accept that (even if Gyurcsány formally said so or even made gestures) and perhaps deep down Mesterházy knows that Gyurcsány is indeed a better politician (whatever that means).
On the other hand, any coalition government has to be completely in line, it will fall within months if the usual “szoci” leftist wirtchaft will continue where everybody has separate opinions and use Fidesz’s Magyar Nemzet as a the main media to leak stories, often simply lie. (Note that Együtt alone has three separate constituencies). The left has to unite with an iron-clad discipline if it wants to survive even a couple of months in government so strong would be Orbán’s power even from opposition.
I tried to find the video via Google & YouTube, but without success; please could you post a link to it?
I am not familiar enough with GF’s policies to be able to form an opinion about what he has to offer, but the other opposition parties are treading too lightly, IMO. I would like to see OV booted out as much as any (non troll) reader here, but I don’t find this gentle opposition in the least compelling, unfortunately. I prefer DK’s more honest offering. And whilst on the subject of honesty, his famous admission of having lied to the voters struck me at that time as being surprisingly, even refreshingly, honest (for a politician).
I agree with DK on all seven points in the list of main differences between the positions of DK and MSZP- E14.
In stead of outright rejecting policies whose sole purpose is to secure the prolongation of Orban’s sovereignty the positions of MSZP-E14 lend some plausibility to such policies.
It seems that Gyurcsan alone has the pluck it takes to distance himself completely from Orban’s populism.
The utility rate cuts alone are going to secure OV victory, I suppose. Voting DK means voting to increase utility costs. Turkeys voting for Christmas springs to mind. More’s the pity.
In case you missed this:
On the income side, Orban will be receiving a mere 100 billion from extending the mobile phone licenses by 10 years.
On the other hand, the government used up another 81.2 billion forints of the private retirement funds in July.
The remainder amounts to 212 billion (it was 2,945 billion in May 2011)
The debt is at a record high, the budget deficit has been increased quietly.
15 325 316 – 16 376 151= – 1 050 835 is the new equation.
Click to access 12100.pdf
If there is a downturn in the US stock market in the Fall, the forint will collapse (I expect EUR= 400 HUF), together with the Orban government.
Grant, no so sure, people do get used to utility decreases and other money hand outs rather quickly.
However, when any potential new government will have to increase prices to allow for investments, depreciation (or simply because across the board price decreases always favor the heavy users, so they are simply a bad and unfair policy) and the like, Fidesz will kill such government and brand it forever as a “price increasing population torturer”.
Fidesz will say with its complete media power and mobilization capability that, why, it’s only natural the communists want to suck the blood of good Hungarians in any way they can, like increasing utility prices.
Very good post of Jerry K. It appears indeed best to approach many parties in the East/Central European countries as organisations built around particular people and not ideas. (So no Hungarian specifics.) It helps understand why the broad public stays suspicious (even if it should be these suspicious people who demand that parties and movements are organised around ideas and goals, and not strong egos).
In the list of DK, I started to wonder already at point 1: “The Demokratikus Koalíció, on the other hand, holds that the new constitution is illegitimate because it was enacted without the participation of the opposition. Therefore, according to DK, the new constitution must be repealed and the constitution of the Republic must take its place.”
How will they manage to make the constitution more legitimate through participation of the opposition, in this case Jobbik and Fidesz, I wonder?
And this for me is the biggest problem with such programmes in current circumstances. There is nothing said about how the nation could cooperate more and existing “insurmountable” divisions overcome. DK presents a programme that they consider superior, which is acceptable in a democracy, but they present it in a confrontational manner in an autocracy and against their democratic partners (knowing that they carry a specific burden in terms of staff – called Gyurcsany). I know I repeat that very often but matters in Hungary will not improve until politicians stop aggressively dividing society (the autocratic set-up now will just favour the incumbent). They should also be able not to propose what they want to do FOR the people (=paternalistic) but WITH them participating (=democratic). Just to make people accustomed to participation and responsibility for the political outcomes, and not passive recipients of “charitable gifts” such as utility prices.
Kirsten, your ideas are admirable but I’m afraid under the circumstances cooperation with Fidesz and Jobbik is really out of the question. Bajnai is dreaming.
OT but you might be interested to hear that the Hungarian fans completely destroyed fourteen railway cars on the way home. I guess, in their sorrow.
Really OT. I don’t think that you remember because we talked about it only in the comments that Géza Gárdonyi’s The Star of Eger was translated into Turkish.
On May 26 Wolfi happened to talk about a German-Turkish politician and I wrote in reply:
“the mention of Turkey reminded me of a piece of news from Hungary. Géza Gárdonyi’s historical novel entitled Egri csillagok (The stars of Eger) on the siege of the Fortress of Eger was translated into Turkish. I doubt that it will be a bestseller in Turkey. The Turks in the novel are not depicted in the best light. A Turkish translation of this particular book struck me as an odd choice.”
Well, well, here is an interview with the translator from which we can learn that several people threatened to kill him because he translated this anti-Turkish novel.
http://www.sonline.hu/somogy/kultura/halalos-fenyegetes-az-egri-csillagok-torok-forditasa-miatt-514789
The “funny thing” is that at the same time the three Romanian politicians with Hungarian origin (the representatives of the Hungarian minority in Romania) filed a complaint with FIFA against the Romanian soccer fans, as “Lately it became customary that on soccer games they continually repeat that Hungarians must leave the country.” Now, I am not a legal expert, but after looking at the footage or reading the articles on various languages that can be found all over the Internet about how the Hungarian (soccer fans) behaved, I am not sure if the complaint could stand. Why wouldn’t they want the Hungarians out? THe statement was general , and simply could mean they wanted the troublemakers out.
Although most Hungarian press only reports that the trouble makers are the members of official fan club of the soccer league, a further digging brings up the full name is the official fan club is Carpathian Brigade. THere were around 1000 fans un the train. I would like to remind everyone that these are the similar kind of fans that showed up on the controversial 2006 riots and caused the trouble that prompted Fidesz wanting the police use live ammunition. (Later for political reason they were upset that the police even used rubber bullets. haha) Also these are the similar kind of fans that Fidesz called in to “protect” their headquarters against the peaceful university demonstrators.
This should come as no surprise once the structure of a legal society is tampered with. Once people see that an illegality is not met with the proper legal response but is fudged–as per example, the dealings with the Garda–the bunko element arises. ‘Lets loose the dogs of war’…is the bastardized saying that comes to mind.
Re the Romania-Hungary game – I only realised after my last foci post that the loss wasn’t just a loss, or even ‘just’ a loss to Romania, it effectively ended Hungary’s chances of qualifying for the World Cup (for the first time in decades).
Hungary were lucky with their qualifying group, as it includes only one strong team (Netherlands). The other four countries are Romania, Turkey, Estonia and Andorra – so second place in the group was a serious possibility for the Hungarian team, and runners-up have a 50/50 chance of qualifying, via the play-offs.
Hungary went into that game in second place, 1 point above Romania. A draw would have kept them in second, and a win would have opened up a 4 point gap – giving Hungary a real qualification chance, with only 3 games to go (with a good chance of winning two of them).
But instead, the Romanians are now second, 2 points above Hungary, and with a better goal difference. And that result has more or less ended Hungary’s first real chance in years to qualify for the World Cup. It was a huge blow for Hungarian football.
And a huge blow for Orbán – just think how he would have played Hungary qualifying for the World Cup just before the election…
PS – I am on no way trying to excuse the violence and vandalism – nothing excuses that sort of behaviour.
Yesterday I read a post on Facebook which I think correctly remarked that Orbán didn’t want to go to the game because he knew that there would be terrible Hungarian misbehavior. If he really wanted to be there he could have had his daughter’s wedding on another day. I think the person is right. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised that the date was fixed for him to have an excuse not to go.
To quote an old saying, a camel is a horse designed by a committee. Te problem is that the camel will not win races. This whole process of trying to come to a negotiated political front is ridiculous and its only outcome is Fidesz’ guaranteed win in 2014. Gyurcsany’s presence will only push people away from the left. Banai and Mesterhazy will not campaign effectively because they will be keeping an eye on each other instead of Orban. Frankly, I don’t think the left is capable of mounting an effective campaign.
“I don’t think it’s impossible to win.”
Even if it was possible for MSzP or a united opposition to win.do you think Orbán would just stand by and let it happen?
He can (and will) do anything he has to do to ensure a Fidesz win. Last minute changes in the rules (which Fidesz is mysteriously prepared for), disqualification of candidates on technical grounds…
And he knows he can get away with it.
OT Talking about history. Please find a nice history falsification. https://lh3.ggpht.com/-3JZOEl2rN5g/UinSWwGsTGI/AAAAAAAAAz4/TVJTSVvSnUs/s1600/IMG.jpg
This is apparently from a history book, which kids have to learn.
Small correction. Ethics book for fifth-graders.
I’m amused by some of the people who know ahead of time what will happen. I understand that Gy’s rejection has been actually decreasing in the last few months. If this is the case, I’m not so sure that his campaigning will hurt the left.
It is amazing that a liar like Gyurcsny should have a chance as a politician. Are some of the people in Hungary so stupid to vote for him?
Carl Flesch
Realpstr. 61
CH-4054 Basel
Tel: +41(0)61 3017740
The infamous speech wasn’t about lying in the ordinary sense of the word and he wasn’t talking about himself. It was about the irresponsible Hungarian politicians who were not telling the Hungarian people that the populist promises cannot be continued.
Those of you who read the German-language press on Hungary there is a very funny article in Pester Lloyd about the “royal wedding.”
See:
http://www.pesterlloyd.net/html/1336rahelhochzeit.html
So much pie-in-the-sky nonsense herein. Hasn’t Orban banned the OSCE from monitoring the elections? And also reduced party monitoring?
Pray tell, what do people think he’s doing that for?
Carl, before you call 200,000 Hungarians stupid, how about you read *both* Oszod speeches not just the 30 second Fidesz version of the second speech.
Here is the first one for ya. Judging from your style, I’m sure you speak Hungarian …
http://www.nol.hu/archivum/archiv-418825
Certainly, the doomsday scenario doesn’t seem to be impossible. But again, dictatorship requires a lot of work, dedication and intelligence. And these are not the treats of the Orban army.
Fudging a 10% lead is difficult at this moment. Too many free journalists are running around in the Kingdom.
Well, we’ll see in April.
Only 200,000?! I’d go much higher than that.
I saw this in the NYTimes recently: mass psychotherapy…Hungarians free.
CArl, How about the 2/3 of Hungary who gave a chance to Fidesz? Are they so stupid? Are you one of them? Just asking. Orban clearly said that “do not listen to what I say” Fidesz called on the police to use live ammunition against the crowd in 2006. Pal Schmitt lied about having a phd, as well as he plagiarized. Fidesz lost billions of dollars of the nationalized private retirement savings. Are the Hungarian people insane to dismiss these facts? ARe the Hungarian people insane not to see that Gyurcsany told the truth about Hungarian politicians who lie day and night? Are you hating Gyurcsany for the truth and admire Orban for his lies. Are you so stupid?
Hey, that’s pretty salty stuff, Some1!
Why Seek Electoral Victory?
Orban has robbed the country blind.
Even if the opposition wins the next election, Orban’s long-term appointees, oligarchs, croneys and infrastructure will be there to make sure the opposition fails and Orban gets quickly and triumphantly re-elected the next time.
Meanwhile, the poop is set to hit the propellor in the next few years, big time, as Orban’s Ponzo Kleptocracy implodes.
And the Hungarian populace is fully media-primed to pin the full blame for the catastrophe on the opposition yet again, if they are in government at the time.
So it seems to me like lose/lose for the opposition to aim for electoral victory.
The opposition should instead pull out all stops on telling it how it is, whether or not the populace is yet ready to believe it — and this seems to be exactly what DK is doing.
Let the public hear the truth, vote for Fidesz just the same, and then face the consequences.
Just deprive Orban of his supermajority, which allows him to paper over every piece of piracy with a new law.
The economic catastrophe of the next four years is now inescapable: Let it fall on Orban’s head, deprived of the superlegislative power to protect him from the consquences.
And let the free and foreign media trumpet DK’s message loud and clear throughout.
Hungary is beyond any quick fix now; but allowing effects to coincide with their causes is the only hope of awakening the Hungarian electorate to who and what is the real cause of their misfortunes.
Stevan Harnad: “So it seems to me like lose/lose for the opposition to aim for electoral victory. The opposition should instead pull out all stops on telling it how it is, whether or not the populace is yet ready to believe it — and this seems to be exactly what DK is doing. Let the public hear the truth, vote for Fidesz just the same, and then face the consequences.”
Those parties who want to be seen as the only eligible opposition think that they can win by letting the government’s deception of the voters go unopposed in stead of “telling it how it is”. They are still doing what Gyurcsany warned about in his so called “lying speech”.
Well, if the reports are true on the end to quantitative easing…… it could be the end of cheap money
Analysis of the results of the local by-election in Vac, 2nd electoral district.
Fidesz candidate still won today. In 2010 Fidesz and KDNP fielded separate candidates.
The turnout was 48.75% in 2010 and 30.4% today.
Results:
Fidesz 43.4%
MSzP 35.6%
Jobbik 6.2%
Independents 14.8%
Losses in voters, 2013 vs 2010:
Fidesz+KDNP -55.4%
Jobbik -44.4%
MSzP -9.7%
[The losses of MSzP are much lower than the losses of Fidesz, but still losses.
The same pattern showed up in Szigetszentmiklos a few days ago.]
others +40.9%
[This could be the Fidesz tactics in 2014. Lots of independent candidates stealing the votes from MSzP & its allies.]
This is what I’m saying. The VOTERS (we) should unite in 2014, not the parties. Vote to win!
Yeah!
And pretty much the truth, don’t you think?
I do.
In my point of view Gyurcsány became a pariah, because he’s disclosed the whole Hungarian political system, left, right and in between. That’s why he’s been banned left and right, and all over, as I see it.
Furthermore, IMO, his problem with MSZP and E14 isn’t personal, but ideological.
After all, both Bajnai and Mesterházy aiming only to continue “as usual” everything – after they managed to get rid of Orbán – with the restauration of democracy, of course, only the DK has program for a radically new, European Hungary.
I think Gyurcsány learned the (bitter) lection, what the “old way” really means, and he doesn’t want to go on the same populist road again – just listen that infamous speech – and he decided to be frank and outspoken, instead of throwing nice promises all over, as the others do.
Just look at it: both Bajnai and Mesterházy pussyfooting all over the so called “sesitive” issues, hoping, that this way they’ll win over more undecided voters, while Gyurcsány speaking straight and without the usual political roundabout.
And I have this funny feeling, that the civilized part of the country already well fed up with the lukewarm crap what floads from everywhere in generous amounts and willing to listen to someone who cuts to the chase instead of schmoozing in every direction.
It isn’t the hurt feeling of a person what’s behind of these actions, but the recognition of the need of fundamental changes, even after / if they dethrone Orbán.
Politics may indeed be different, – even if the party with similar name sank back being nothing of the kind – time for a proof, DK!
It doesn’t matter what Gy meant, all that matters is what people heard (or thought they heard – there is no real difference). They heard him say he’d lied. And even those who listened a little more carefully (how many actually heard more than the sound-bites?) and realised he was saying that politicians lied, simply reasoned: we’ll GY’s a politician, so he lied too.
“This could be the Fidesz tactics in 2014. Lots of independent candidates stealing the votes from MSzP & its allies.”
There could be something in this – a 15% vote for independents is very high. It may be different in Hungary, but in the UK, unless there was some controversial local issue, independents rarely get more than a percent or 2 – mostly just a handful of votes.)
Given the strength of the Fidesz spin and propaganda campaigns over recent times, I’m sure they have a section working on just such tactics for 2014. With far fewer constituencies and the organisation and wealth of Fidesz, it would easily be possible to have a team of ‘saboteurs’ allocated to each constituency.
The sheep of the Left are about to walk blindly into a ‘contest’ run entirely by wolves. What beats me is how they haven’t yet spotted this. After all this time, how come it’s only GY who sees Orbán for what he is?
Stevan Harnad – well said. Sanest post on here for weeks.
Tappanch, Paul:
It is clear that this is a tactic.
Fidesz has a very disciplined voter base and a fantastic campaign machinery and the Fideszniks will vote for the Fidesz candidate no matter what.
(Not also that the electoral districts are gerrymandered so that — except for a small number of carefully compartmentalized districts where leftist voters are concentrated so that they cannot affect neighboring districts — by default the dominant party of the right wing, currently Fidesz, is set to win.)
The rest of the electorate will have and option of 10-15 candidates to choose from in any electoral district (party lists are a different issue). If Fidesz can achieve that 10-15% of the overall votes in any district end up cats for small (nominally independent) candidates, then that is absolutely enough for the particular Fidesz’ candidates to get the first place (like in this local by-election the district MP in the general elections will be elected on a first past the post system basis).
The “independent” (most of them of course are simply Fideszniks) candidates will have an effect only on the opposition-leaning and non-Fidesz part of the electorate.
This tactic is not a surprise and in fact it has been openly talked about when the new election system was analyzed by Haza és Haladás and others.
But no foreign election observer will know about this, they will stamp the elections crystal clear.
Like it was said, the fraud takes place much earlier than election day. Only the most amateurish politicians attempt fraud on election das, the pros organize everything thoroughly beforehand.
Of course the medicine would be a military style disciplined GOTW effort (similar to Fidesz’s) by the united left, but neither the left is capable of such an effort, nor are the Hungarian leftist voters that disciplined.
Fidesz will always have the advantages: discipline, loyalty and complete subordination to party commands. Until the left cannot match those, Fidesz will rule.
Puli – the puzzle is why only a few of us can see this. I can’t believe that most of the people on the left don’t know what’s happening, but there appears to be a mass self-delusion going on. Perhaps people simply can’t face up to the enormity of what’s happened, and as long as they can cling to the hope that somehow it can still be stopped via an election, they can still cope?
But what happens after April next year – when it becomes abundantly clear that Orbán has the whole system sewn up and Hungary is effectively a one-party state? Will they keep kidding themselves for another 4 years, or will they just give up in the face of an ‘impossible’ situation?
This is why we need Gyurcsány – now and after the election – he is the only one who sees what has happened and is prepared to tell people about it.
Mind you, Fidesz only tolerate him because it suits them to have him there for their propaganda. What happens if he starts to be effective, if he starts to really get the message across? Orbán won’t put up with that.
@Puli, Paul
“Fidesz has a very disciplined voter base and a fantastic campaign machinery and the Fideszniks will vote for the Fidesz candidate no matter what.”
Interesting observation for a country from which I hear that it is close to apolitical. How can that be? People disinterested in politics, dull, lazy (just to repeat what I read here on the blog) but one party manages to have “very disciplined voters” and a “fantastic campaign machinery”? I will again try to offer an alternative interpretation. The centre-to-left parties have no unified idea about where the country should be heading for, Fidesz does. The centre-to-left parties have been unable to draw useful (and similar) conclusions from their defeat in 2010, Fidesz does have an interpretation of pre-2010 Hungary, “useful” in the sense that it convinces some people (the other side convinced just a very small number of people and debate is about whether MSzP did nearly everything right before 2010 or just everything, I exaggerate to make the point). Fidesz makes an appearance that it is able to govern the country, to make decisions and put them into practice. The centre-to-left parties are quarrelling who of them is the best and brightest, without being able to “govern” the opposition, make decisions and putting them into practice. Who should find this attractive? Why should voters be “disciplined”? Disciplined in supporting people who are not disciplined enough to put ideas first instead of their vanity?
It would be good to see that what may appear to be “fantastic campaign machinery” is fantastic only when compared with the extreme weakness of the opposition. The performance of OV is not fantastic at all, which many people know by now. But there is nothing attractive to turn to.
And as regards this:
“This is why we need Gyurcsány – now and after the election – he is the only one who sees what has happened and is prepared to tell people about it.”
If you want autocracy now under FGy, go ahead. If you opt for democracy, it might be better to make democracy and participation attractive to the broad public.
Don’t you think that you exaggerate. Gyurcsány is no autocrat. Not even his critics say that about him. If you think that I think you misjudge the situation.
Eva, if even his critics do not say this about him, this could be a good start. But then people should not make another saviour of him. I think it was this repetition of that he alone is capable of standing up to OV that made me write this. It is the public that could make him (perhaps unwillingly) an autocrat just by relying only on him and not on a broad coalition, of which he is but one cooperating participant.
In other countries it would immediately sound strange (“there is only Frau Merkel that can secure democracy in Germany”, “France has only Mr Hollande” etc.). Typically you expect that the staffing level is larger than one or even ten people. This is why I wrote it.
I’m afraid you missed a few bylines – or my hearing needs to be repaired…
What I’ve heard from him was, that so far only he has faced with VO as a challenger, and beat him successfully, none of the others. As far as my memory serves, this information is correct, no doubt about it.
Beats me, how did you managed to deduct autocratic tendencies based on this, not to mention the chain of conclusions following it – you’ve lost me there.
I was also surprised by Kirsten’s conclusions. If Gyurcsány had been such an autocrat at least he could have kept his party in line. But no, the party of which he was chairman sabotaged him.
While he was prime minister there was not one sign of any undemocratic tendency on his part. He was fastidious in his adherence to democratic norms. If there is one man who takes democracy terribly serious and follows its edicts is Gyurcsány.
He made political mistakes but his mistakes had nothing to do with his alleged autocratic tendencies.
Eva, I don’t that Kirsten was hinting at Gyurcsany’s autocratic tendencies… but more at the Hungarian electorate’s tendency for adulation of chosen politicians. I think she has made a good point… if some are looking at Gyurcsany for salvation, something is not quite right. And that’s not necessarily Gyurcsany’s fault.
On the other hand, though, all charismatic politicians have an “adoring” fan base even in mature democracies… at least that was my impression from seeing, for example, the Obama campaign.
@An, Maybe I misunderstood Kirsten. The “adoration” of Gyurcsány is different from that of Orbán. In Gyurcsány’s case there are people who are convinced that he is the only person who could set Hungary on the right path. These people come from a very different mix of people from that of the other side. They are mostly well educated urban people. Orbán’s admirers is more the kind who stood on Margit körút hoping to catch a glimpse of Viktor and Ráhel. On her cheeks there were two hot red lips. She was naturally very unhappy that she couldn’t get to see his beloved man.