European Parliamentary Election in Hungary: Final Results

Here are the official results:

Fidesz:  51.9% (1,191,163)

Jobbik: 14.68% (339,501)

MSZP: 10.92% (252,494)

Demokratikus Koalíció  9.76% (225,762)

Együtt-PM 7.22% (167,012)

LMP 5.01% (115,957)

It seem that the “spy affair” of Jobbik’s Béla Kovács did make a difference as far as the party’s popularity is concerned. Jobbik lost about 25% of its supporters.

The other surprise was the lackluster performance of MSZP and the higher than expected results for DK. The difference between the two parties was only about 30,000 votes. MSZP did especially badly in Budapest. In the capital DK was the second strongest party after Fidesz. The third was Együtt2014-PM; the forth was MSZP followed by LMP.

 

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32 comments

  1. The majority of Fidesz among the voters is incredible.

    Any of the opposition parties is so far behind Fidesz that as if they were not even playing in the same league.

    There is no way any opposition party can turn this tide in many years.

  2. If the united democratic opposition had stayed together, they would have been second, with 28%, twice the percentage of Jobbik (33% if LMP had cared more for democracy and decency than rhetoric…)

    But there’s no denying that the vast majority of Hungarians are in the thrall of Fidesz/Jobbik — to their eternal historic shame.

  3. The results are a reminder that the lefty voters do not want the utter impotence of MSZP. People like Zsolt Molnar, Attila Mesterhazy and others who are mute, but in any case are trying to suck up to Fidesz and essentially seek approval from Fidesz are not needed. There is no role these people can potentially play (other than hoping for some crumbs for themselves from Simicska). If voters want Fidesz then they will vote for Fidesz, but there is no demand for this emptiness and conformism, this big nihil.

    At least this is a start for the new lefty parties like DK and Együtt, although with such a mighty Fidesz any chance of success is in the very far future.

    Also, Jobbik’s worse results may not be because of the Bela Kovacs case, but because its voters come predominantly from the rural areas. As these people abstained and don’t care about the EU, Jobbik suffered, but its voters base is still very much there for the municipal elections.

  4. @Steven Harnard: “But there’s no denying that the vast majority of Hungarians are in the thrall of Fidesz/Jobbik — to their eternal historic shame.”

    Well, the vast majority of Hungarians who cared enough to vote. Only 28.92% turned out to vote. True, it’s not the national elections, but still… it’s very low.

    I agree with the general sentiment, though. It is a historic shame, and it is also shameful that so few bothered to vote at all.

  5. Of course now that Bajnai is moving to the background at Együtt, the party’s future is in question.

  6. It seems that the good showing of the united opposition in Budapest at the national election is solely due to DK and E14 voters. So much for MSZP’s worries about Gyurcsány taking votes away from the united opposition.

  7. @buddy

    The issue with MSZP is not that Mesterhazy stays or not, though of course he should go.

    But that there is nobody at all there who would have any kind of vision where to bring MSZP or the left-wing.

    MSZP is empty.

    Its MPs have a well-paying job for 4 years, Szanyi just prior to retirement can save a bit, but that’s all.

    This is how a party disappears, when they have nothing left to say anymore.

    There are some voters left, but I guess they would equally happily vote for DK or Együtt (should Együtt survive Bajnai’s leave).

    (Of course this is only an inra-left game, how to cross over to the increasingly conservative and right-wing electorate is a big question to which neither of them have any answer).

  8. Szajer says Fidesz’s influence within the EPP will increase.

    Well, that is probably true.

    Don’t expect the EU to be tough with Orban, he will have the last lough.

  9. There’s another word for the poor showing of most opposition parties, including Jobbik: apathy.

  10. “Only 28.92% turned out to vote. True, it’s not the national elections, but still… it’s very low.”

    That is not true, 28.92 is a very good turnout for the region. It is more than two times greater than the turnout in Slovakia a country right next door.

    On the other hand the turnout really puts these results in question. 0.289 in turnout means that only 2.8% of the population voted for DK that we celebrate as a great victory.

    The “victory of DK” against MSZP does not mean that DK has many voters it just means that they mobilised nearly all of them for this election while MSZP mobilised poorly. DK was very successful in attacking, harassing and destroying MSZP for example by constantly bringing up Zsolt Molnar’s alleged skinhead past. They harassed this MSZP politician so much that he had to resign in disgrace from where? From the position of Budapest leader. Forcing the MSZP Budapest leader was a big victory for DK for sure contributing to the Budapest result.

    DK as a party had big money advantage as well. MSZP has 2.3 billion in debt, while DK has many billions in not debt but in wealth. That wealth is personal wealth of the leaders and friends of DK leaders of course but during important elections they can spend from there quite easily. So I predict that this “victory” for DK will not last

    because 4 years from now nobody will remember this election but everyone will see every day that it is MSZP who has 28 members in the Hungarian Parliament and it is DK who has only 4.

  11. @bob

    I think you completely misunderstand the situation, or rather want to give a misleading explanation. While your point about the low turnout may be valid, all the parties, including MSZP, had a chance to mobilize their voters. MSZP abjectly failed in that effort (too).

    In addition, DK was not at all attacking MSZP, what you say about their approach to MSZP is simply untrue.

    DK does not want to alienate MSZP’s voters because DK intends to capture them slowly. If MSZP’s voters feel offended by the arrogance of a triumphant Gyurcsány, they may just reject him even if they think alike politically. So DK threads rather lightly.

    In fact 444.hu had a big article demanding intra-left attacks and real competition among them which the author thought were warranted, but instead the lefty parties did not attack each other.

    Actually nobody cared about Molnar’s skinhead past, even if that was a nice kompromat by Fidesz. It was a fun fact, but not meaningful politically. You completely misunderstand the voters if you think that is something that can have serious effect. People are foolish when they are young and people are OK with that.

    What the lefty voters cared about, however, and cared about deeply, is that Molnar as it turned was working essentially for Fidesz while leading the campaign which was anyway anemic at best. Which was in line with people’s suspicions because one just cannot be this impotent as Molnar and Mesterhazy were without a good enough reason. It turned out these suspicions were founded, these vision-less guys only wanted the proverbial crumbs from the usual szoci deals Molnar and Csaba Horvath hoped to strike with Tarlós and Rogán. I guess traditional MSZP voters just felt humiliated that their representatives (supposed ‘leaders’) are beholden to the deplored Fidesz and all for petty money (in Hungarian ‘pitizni’, they were like a panting dachshund).

    MSZP’s voters are opposition voters for a reason and they want their party to act like one. MSZP simply did not have a campaign neither before the general elections, nor in the last month. I mean both Bajnai and Gyurcsány at least gave interviews among other actions, Mesterhazy could not even place a goddamn interview in any major internet site like origo or index. What were these MSZP politicians thinking?

    MSZP’s politicians have nothing to say, nobody knows what they stand for. I follow politics, but I would be hard-pressed if I had to answer. Why on earth would anybody vote for MSZP? Why?

    MSZP is in a terminal decline, the question is how its voters are treated by Együtt (where Bajnai’s leave is a huge risk) or by DK so that they could eventually be transferred peacefully towards either of the two. (That of course does not solve the more important issue that is that the majority of the electorate is now solidly right-wing, and especially the younger generations, and obviously none of the leftist parties has any answers to that most fundamental of questions.)

    Even the fact that Tibor Szanyi is sent to the EU is characteristic of MSZP’s complete lack of vision. Szanyi is essentially before retirement, as such he will soon be useless politically. Instead of investing in the future, sending talented young turks to Strasbourg to gain experience and build networks in Europe, MSZP decided to give a present to one of the dinosaurs.

  12. I may be missing something here, but as they are on their Euro election lists, do Gyurcsány, Molnár and Bajnai propose to serve as both MEPs and MPs in Hungary?
    I was under the impression that this has been banned in Strasbourg for several years now. Or are they sending someone in their place (which is the impression I get from Index.hu, while the news channels seem to state that Gyurcsány, Molnár and Bajnai are all the “candidates” for the MEP places.
    Can someone clear this up?

  13. With such ridiculously low turnout, characteristic of EU elections, what matters is who was able to motivate their base. Obviously Fidesz either have fewer supporters than at the last EU election, because now they have shown how they govern, or their supporters are not as enthusiastic as they were 5 years ago, because they feel secure with Orbán’s near-total domination of all power in the country.

    MSZP’s voters were either too depressed with the state of affairs in the country, or were unable to get to the polling stations because there were not enough wheelchair ramps – sorry, I mean were not happy with the way MSZP have been conducting their campaigns. Actually, my cruel joke aside, I was happy to note that at my polling station there were many older people, some of whom were causing traffic jams by walking very slowly across the street. Old age and its related decrepitudes were not enough to keep Hungarians from voting in this relatively unpopular election.

    DK’s voters may indeed have turned out in droves, but I would like to see some deeper numbers on that. Bajnai’s supporters may not have realized that he has departed politics, since his face is plastered all over the city.

  14. Pistefka, No, they will not. Molnár is going to Strasbourg but Gyurcsány and Bajnai will not. The second DK man will be Péter Niedermüller. Benedek Jávor will represent E14.

  15. Why is no-one commenting that Jobbik’s 14.6% of the vote in the EU elections is still way too high and still major cause for concern? If the BNP had this kind of percentage in the UK, then people would not be so silent. The day after 4 people were a shot dead in the Brussels Jewish Museum……..where racism starts, persecution and killings follow.

  16. Too many words are wasted here.

    The financial giants control all parties.

    Politicians are their hostages.

    Orban could destroy the legal system with the cooperation of all parties.

    The local financial giants are even complemented by some foreign allies.

    Freedom has been lost for a long time again.

  17. Who said:

    “The people have spoken loud and clear,”

    “They no longer want to be led by those outside our borders, by EU commissioners and technocrats who are unelected. They want to be protected from globalisation and take back the reins of their destiny.”?

    Well… actually it wasn’t Orban but instead Marine Le Pen of the Far Right NF in France.

    But it could well have been Viktor- Le Pen and the other nazi fruitcakes who have done so well in these elections speak exactly the same violent, nationalist and racist language as Orban, *our* PM and that for me is (slightly) more disturbing than Jobbik’s 14%.

    You see David, to a very large extent Jobbik=Fidesz=National Front=Golden Dawn etc etc. Fidesz perhaps have better suits than the likes of Vona but the views of a large proportion of their voters and politicians are interchangeable with Jobbik. That’s Hungary’s biggest problem.

  18. People don’t realize–the hungarian electorate is like children: give them some ‘candy’ or, more effectively, threaten them. So it is. Hungarians now know that their jobs–and this lesson has been driven home multiple times–is dependent on the beneficence of their masters. Life in tribal times could’ve been little different.

    The failure of MSZP has been due more to being shown up as being helpless in the onslaught–wether fair or legal or not–of Fidesz against MSZP members. Hungarians hate weakness and will
    always ally themselves with the stronger. MSZP is now seen as powerless even to defend themselves. This, again, is a lesson for the other parties and for the electorate.

    It is laughable that the electorate should see such hapless creatures as Deutsch and Szajer as respectable representatives in Europe. It could hardly be worse. But the Fidesz mainstream has been taught, or disciplined, to believe that they must follow the decisions of their ‘masters’ and not to have a deciding impact on who represents them. Political primitivism.

    Oh, and let me reiterate: the great gift that Fidesz has bestowed on native Hungarians is the ‘allowance to hate’–jews, mainly. The multi-faceted support for anti-semitism in society is only clandestine to the level of general argument in case the country is challenged on it in some part of the world. Hate–look what it did for Germany until 1944…

  19. Good article about spending the night at Együtt’s election party. The author used to be a singer in the 1980’s in the Hungarian underground and she writes quite well. The point is Együtt has a lot of these formerly SZDSZ-leaning bourgeois-bohemian people around the party. Of course these people are just no match for the young and hungry Fidesznik lawyers from the country. It’s like as if Upper West Side intellectuals and smart businesspeople would try to win an election in a Southern State, even the idea would be preposterous. Együtt has zero rural network and these bourgeois supporters (Együtt won the most in district II, which is one of the poshest districts, though much less conservative than district XII) just cannot compete with the Kobatov-CÖF machinery. The future of Együtt is a huge question mark.

    http://magyarnarancs.hu/belpol/szazalekok-azalekok-es-a-kilencvenes-evek-szellemei-egyutt-pm-muri-belulrol-90222

  20. I heard that DK is getting rid of Bauer. This is a smart move because it removes two attack points from DK. Bauer was one of the leaders of SZDSZ the most hated name in Hungarian politics. And Bauer’s parents were also AVO murderers and torturers, which he is not responsible for of course but the simple people do not understand it. So all in all a good move in getting rid of him it will make DK stronger.

  21. @David: Because it’s actually much worse for them then what we expected. I agree though, it’s tragic that Fidesz-Jobbik, actually have a two thirds of the votes casted.

    The other thing that the good result of DK and Együtt showed is that the joint party list was a spectacular mistake. What they got with that was the intersection of the three parties while the union has a lot more potential (especially on a parliamentary election where you want to have a huge net to catch swing voters). I’m pretty sure that one reason behind LMP’s low figures is that Együtt PM was a viable Gyurcsány and MSZP-free alternative this time. I don’t know whether the rumors about Bajnai’s departure are true or not, but that definitely would be a huge mistake.

    Someone said it above, Gyurcsány is really playing it smart, I have to admit. He acts friendly and humble towards MSZP so while he’s putting in the last nails of its well deserved coffin, the electorate (or part of) can easily be channeled into DK. I wish he had been half as good at governing, this would be a very different country today.

  22. NB: According to index, Bauer is quitting because Molnár was given the EP seat that he set his eyes on.

  23. It’ll be “interesting times” for the whole EU. The new right wing parties (and the old ones too …) will have a hard time because there’ll probably be more cooperation between the big two:

    EPP and Socialists (like in Berlin already where something similar happened at our last elections) will form a big coalition and the smaller parties will be out of the system of power …

    Anyway this trend to the extreme right (and partially also to the extreme left) will not continue imho – we have to wait for the next elections in the member countries of the EU.

    The German media at least are very sure that Mrs Merkel will “box through” Juncker – probably compensating Schulz somehow – and Orbán will have to carry the image of the outsider. Maybe they’ll even make Fidesz leave the EPP!

  24. “…course these people are just no match for the young and hungry Fidesznik lawyers from the country.”

    Fidesz activists are, by and large, middle-aged and over and by and large, are only in it for the money.

    To try and allege that below the very top level of Fidesz there is any layer of intelligence apparent is nonsense.

    In the “country”, Fidesz have a large crew of corrupt and seriously stupid thugs at middle and lower management level- the only reason they prosper is through corruption and fear.

  25. “Why is no-one commenting that Jobbik’s 14.6% of the vote in the EU elections is still way too high and still major cause for concern?”

    Because it’s the same result they achieved back in 2009. They have made no progress. The real cause for concern is France, not Hungary.

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