Municipal elections will be held in three weeks. Not so long ago it seemed that the opposition actually stood a chance of winning in Budapest. After all, in the last election more people voted for the opposition parties than for Fidesz in the capital city. Fidesz sensed danger: its two-third’s majority in parliament promptly changed the Budapest electoral law. This move greatly reduced the likelihood of the opposition’s winning. But, as has since become painfully obvious, the real problem lies not so much in the new, admittedly unfair law but rather in the inability of the opposition to close ranks. As it stands now, there are seven hopefuls for the post of lord mayor of Budapest: István Tarlós (Fidesz-KDNP), Ferenc Falus (Együtt-PM), Antal Csárdi (LMP), Gábor Staudt (Jobbik), Zoltán Bodnár (MLP), Lajos Bokros (MoMa), and György Magyar (independent). Is it any surprise that, according to a couple of opinion polls, Tarlós is leading the pack by a wide margin?
When, after agonizingly long negotiations, the democratic opposition settled on Ferenc Falus, I thought he was a good candidate. I had seen several interviews with him from his days as the country’s chief public health official. He seemed to me the opposite of István Tarlós, whom even one of his political allies recently called “a fellow with churlish manners.” Falus, by contrast, struck me as a perfect gentleman with an even temperament whom people could trust. Unfortunately, he turned out to be a disappointment. It is hard to pinpoint exactly what went wrong. Was it Falus’s political inexperience or the fault of the party that nominated him? Wasn’t he properly prepared? Why didn’t he know enough about the workings of the city before he had to face an army of journalists? I suspect that the fault lies with Együtt-PM, whose candidate he is, although MSZP and DK decided to support him. Sometimes I wonder whether Falus would be better off if Viktor Szigetvári, the man who is running the party nowadays, would just leave him alone. One day Falus says that if opinion polls indicate that another opposition candidate has the lead he will withdraw in his favor, but the next day he is forced to say that his statement was a mistake. He will not withdraw from the race. Meanwhile, the poor man’s credibility is severely damaged. I think that Falus’s chances of winning are approaching zero.
Today I will focus on another candidate, Lajos Bokros, the economist and former minister of finance in the Horn government (1995-1996). He was the one who made necessary economic adjustments which resulted in a very strict austerity program nicknamed “the Bokros package.” As a result, the popularity of the Horn government dropped, but within a couple of years, due to the measures he introduced, the Hungarian economy began to grow rapidly. He was criticized by the left as well as the right, but in fact Viktor Orbán should have been grateful to him. As a result of his reforms, the first Orbán government had an easy time financially, and before the 2002 election there was even enough money to loosen the monetary policy of the country. But the personal cost to Bokros was high; he became the most hated man in the country. His popularity at one point was 9%.
The fact is that Bokros is not really a politician. His main concern is the economy, and therefore I was surprised that in April 2013 he and some former politicians of MDF decided to establish a political party called Modern Magyarország Mozgalom/Movement for Modern Hungary (MoMa). In the April election he and his party supported the united democratic opposition, but on July 7, 2014 he announced his candidacy for the post of mayor of Budapest. At the time I don’t think anyone would have given him the slightest chance of even getting the necessary number of signatures to be able to proceed. But Bokros surprised everybody. In fact, Méltányosság Politikaelemző Központ, a respectable political think tank, believes that among all the candidates he is the only one who would have a chance against István Tarlós, the current Fidesz-KDNP mayor. Moreover, Nézőpont Intézet, the only pollsters to conduct a survey in Budapest, already ranked Bokros ahead of Falus.
How could that happen? I see quite a few possible reasons for that unlikely development. One is that among the people running against the incumbent mayor, Bokros has the highest name recognition. Second, it is possible that Bokros’s lack of political finesse is a plus in the eyes of the electorate, which is suspicious of politicians. Third, people are beginning to appreciate professional expertise, and Bokros oozes self-confidence. And he even knows what he is talking about. Fourth, Bokros offered a coherent program well before the campaign got underway. Falus, by contrast, announced his candidacy without any program. His supporting party then cobbled something together, losing two precious weeks of the short campaign time.
Yet it is unlikely that any of the other opposition candidates, with the exception of the independent György Magyar, will withdraw in his favor. The candidates of Jobbik and LMP are out of the question. Neither the liberals’ candidate, Zoltán Bodnár, nor Ferenc Falus seems willing to step aside. In fact, Falus’s latest pronouncement is that he expects Bokros, who is ahead of him in the polls, to withdraw in his favor. He graciously offered Bokros a position in his administration.
On October 12, election day, it is almost certain that István Tarlós will win fair and square. The scapegoat will probably be Lajos Bokros. The opposition, the lament may go, could have won if only Bokros hadn’t refused to cede to the man who is most likely currently running behind him.
Somebody told me that Szigetvari admitted in a HVG interview last year that he used to be on the payroll of the municipality of Hodmezovasarhely, the personal fiefdom of Janos Lazar. Szigetvari has been flying on his whizkid image (supposedly based on his contribution to the the 2006 MSZP campaign) when in fact his achievements are close to zero. In any case, he is a terrible politician. He may be a good observer of politics at times, though I haven’t heard him in years, but this doesn’t make him into a viable politician.
This Falus story is pure insanity. This much amateurism will strengthen the Hungarian left wing’s position as the world champion of töketlenkedés. I think even the Zimbabwean opposition is savvier.
But, lest we forget, the perennial issue is the lack of vision. As always.
Tarlós seems to have a vision just because he has been in municipal politics for long. Bokros also, because he is an intelligent and articulate person. Falus is bland, grey and amateurish, without any kind of vision or program which would give him even a minimal confidence. Perfectly cast for this bland, urban szoci type, so no wonder the left wing will fail again spectacularly, people will reject politician without vision. (People, as we know from Finkelstein, vote for the corrupt, but not for the stupid, at the end of the day, they want smart people to rule them not pathetic losers). As Marcsi Schmidt intimated, the left wing will be annihilated in October. Well, probably not, it will continue with this pathetic game, although it will finally be able go on a long holiday because there won’t be any elections for three years. The leftwing nihil of the period 2010-2014 will continue. Just as Fidesz wants it.
As someone who worked closely with Bokros for a few months, I can assure you that he does not have the temperament to be mayor of Budapest. He is extremely thin-skinned and responds to criticism by making snippy comments and taking petty revenge. He likes to surround himself with former CEOs and academics, none of whom have the slightest sense of politics. He is also very disorganized — so much so that I wonder how he managed to push through the 1995-96 reforms. If anyone doubts this, ask is former colleagues at CEU.
He is a better candidate than Falus and a better man than Tarlos, but a Bokros administration in Budapest would be an unqualified disaster.
The wife of Jobbik MEP Béla Kovács, Svetlana Istokhin used to worked for the KGB.
used to work….
Her previous married names were Omiya (Japan) and Schon (Austria)
The Hungarian IRS (NAV) suspended the tax identification numbers of two more NGOs connected to Norway.
The Orban – Lazar duo ordered the KEHI to order the NAV to suspend the numbers, if I remember correctly.
This makes it difficult (or impossible?) for the NGOs to receive money.
@Seal Driver: Nobody believes that Bokros is a serious candidate. He is widely rumored to be hisztis, which is just the opposite what is needed in politics, although passion and charisma are important. That said, the mayor has no real power, especially nowadays it’s a symbolic position. This is a meta election about who, which side is stronger, not an election about which policies can prevail. Fidesz one way or another owns Budapest outright anyway, it’s almost irrelevant which politicians end up working at the municipality. The meta war about which side is (or whchc side will emerge as the one looking) stronger what counts, and it is this iwar in which , I agree, the left will fail.
Besides a Hungarian Assad, we need a Hungarian so called I.S.
The catastrophy will be perfect with those actors.
Are we going to have a Hungarian caliphate or a Soviet republic?
Bokros himself didn’t so much make the “necessary economic adjustments” that came to be known as the detested “Bokros csomag,” he merely signed off on the existing package when his predecessor resigned rather than attach his name to the austerity measures. Regardless of its outcome, that “csomag” is still an albatross around his neck, and probably makes him unelectable to any post, even now.
I never thought that I would arrive to this conclusion, but now, here I am. I think that the opposition should not even run in any election. The rules are bent, no fair election is possible. It is especially true for the current Budapest election. Even if the opposition’s candidate won (which is down right impossible), FIDESS would suffocate the capital financially. Running gives legitimacy to FIDESS.
Reblogged this on hungarywolf.
“Moreover, Nézőpont Intézet, the only pollsters to conduct a survey in Budapest, already ranked Bokros ahead of Falus.” – Wait a minute. So there has only been one poll for Budapest for the local elections? I am really surprised by that. I would have figured there were four or five by now. Why not? Is it money? Do the candidates or parties do internal polling? This seems odd. But maybe its my American presuppositions. There doesn’t seem to be a month that goes by without a poll for the upcoming elections.
The whole charade is so frighteningly “HUngarishc” it hurts already.
They just wouldn’t unite, never, even if their life would depend on it.
Well its ‘only’ your freedom, you morons, not your life, isn’t it?
Eva: “Why didn’t he know enough about the workings of the city before he had to face an army of journalists?”
Why didn’t he know enough before he decided to run? I usually apply to jobs my qualifications allow, did we really give up that much on finding actually competent candidates?
Tarlós is a classic “tahó”, he’s reprehensible as a person and many of his decisions (e.g. the expulsion of homelesses) are downright repulsive to me. On the other hand (mostly thanks to EU projects), the city is constantly getting prettier, things are being renovated and the public transportation is definitely getting better and much more organized than ever during the Demszky era. I come home every six months and it is visually striking, I can’t deny that. We will definitely never be friends but Tarlós is an efficient manager representing stable progress in the city for most people. Meanwhile, the socialist refuse to wake up and work at 7am and Falus is turning out to be a clown getting lost in some logical fallacy every time he opens his mouth. Any more questions?
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